Oakland Athletics Award Watch: Four Threats to Sonny Gray In Cy Young Race
July 28, 2015; Los Angeles, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches the ninth inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Is Oakland Athletics’ Ace Sonny Gray Cy Young Worthy?
Sonny Gray is having a fantastic season for the Oakland Athletics, but there are two components to whether he is Cy Young worthy. The first component is simple. Has his performance on the mound met the standards of the award?
Although he missed his last start, Gray has already thrown over 161 innings this season, making 23 starts with a month and a half left to go in the season. In those starts, he is 12-4, with an American League-best 2.06 ERA. The back spasms he experience in Toronto could be a real concern for the young right-hander, but if he can return to the mound without missing any further starts, he should stay on track for the Cy Young.
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In addition to being fairly durable, Gray also has a 21.8 percent strikeout rate, and a 6.4 percent walk rate – both of these are significantly better than league average. Batters are averaging under .200 against him, and his WHIP is under one, at 0.96. Gray’s 12 wins rank fifth in the American League, tied with two other pitchers. His WHIP is league-leading, and no one has a lower opponents’ batting average. He’s absolutely earned the Cy Young with his performance this season.
The second component of the question is whether or not another pitcher is even more worthy of the award than Gray is. That answer is a little murkier.
If Gray did have a failing, it would be strikeouts – he only ranks tenth overall in those, with 136. Why does that matter? Voters love strikeouts, but Gray has a tendency to pitch to contact whenever he can in order to minimize his pitch count. While he still gets an above-average amount, he doesn’t get nearly as many as the other four pitchers on the Cy Young shortlist.
Even without the necessary strikeouts, Gray has made a case for why he’s the best pitcher in the league this season. So who could possibly stand in his way as he tries to take home the most prized pitching award in baseball? Here are four possibilities:
Next: Cy Young Candidate: The Reigning Champion
Aug 9, 2015; Cleveland, OH, USA; Cleveland Indians starting pitcher Corey Kluber (28) delivers in the sixth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
The Reigning Champion: Corey Kluber
Corey Kluber is a bit of a dark horse in this race, but it’s impossible to ignore him. The 29-year-old right hander made his mark in baseball history last season, when he capture the Cy Young in his fourth major league season. A former Padre, Kluber was sent to the Cleveland Indians in 2010 as part of a three-team deal. Jake Westbrook and Nick Greenwood headed to St. Louis, San Diego picked up Ryan Ludwick, and the Tribe took home long-time minor league Kluber.
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In 2014, he posted a 2.44 ERA, had a league-leading 18 wins (in a league-leading 34 games), and amassed an astonishing 269 strikeouts. He also had just a 1.09 WHIP, and opposing hitters batted .233 against him.
Keep in mind, this was someone who posted a 8.31 and 5.14 ERA in his first two brief stints in the majors, and even in 2013, Kluber went 11-5 with a 3.85 ERA after failing to make the team out of Spring Training.
This season hasn’t been quite as good for Kluber, as his ERA is 3.46, and his record just 7-12 in 24 starts. However, he’s had several stellar outings in recent weeks, and his ERA is rapidly declining. He’s tied with Gray in complete games, with three, and his 186 strikeouts trail only Chris Sale and Chris Archer. Kluber has a seventh-ranked WHIP, at 1.08, and leads the league in innings pitched, at 171.2. If he continues to trend in this direction, his ERA and win total could get to where they need to be to win a second Cy Young Award.
As of this moment, Kluber’s chances of repeating rest heavily on his teammates – a 7-12 record will not impress the old-school judges who can’t see past a silly team-based statistic like wins. Kluber has 15 quality starts, while Gray has 18, but the Indians’ pitcher also has a 2.55 FIP, compared to Gray’s 2.93. Combine those facts with Kluber’s 27.1 percent strikeout rate and 4.9 percent walk rate, and it proves that Kluber is capable of getting himself right back into the Cy Young conversation. Regardless of who takes home the hardware, Kluber may be the more talented pitcher of the two by the slightest of margins.
Next: Cy Young Candidate: The King
Aug 9, 2015; Seattle, WA, USA; Seattle Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez (34) throws against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Safeco Field. Seattle defeated Texas, 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
The King: Felix Hernandez
King Felix is hardly a newcomer to the Cy Young scene. He took home the award in 2010, after one of his many stellar campaigns with the Seattle Mariners, and he’s been in the conversation ever since. Hernandez is sporting a 3.08 ERA this season, and he’s struck out nearly a batter per inning, after amassing 145 strikeouts in 150.2 innings. That strikeout total is ranked seventh in the AL, and Felix is also in sole possession of first place with 14 wins. Add in a pair of complete games and a .234 opponents’ batting average, and Hernandez is having a great season, even if it’s not quite on par with Gray’s.
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So why does Hernandez still find himself on the list of potential competitors for the Cy Young? Last season, he led the AL with a 2.14 ERA – significantly better than Kluber’s 2.44. What he lacked were wins, coming in at 15 compared to 18, and strikeouts, with 248 compared to 269. Even though he had a better ERA, more innings pitched, and a league-leading .92 WHIP, Hernandez still found himself the runner-up in Cy Young voting. The award instead went to someone with more punch-outs and victories – a position Hernandez finds himself in compared to Gray this season.
Hernandez is a pitcher who is inferior to Gray in terms of talent this year, but stands a very good change at usurping the award due to his success in categories Gray has struggled in. Only time will tell if Hernandez’s success in wins and strikeouts will lead to a second Cy Young Award, but it’s certainly a possibility.
Next: Cy Young Candidate: The Trade Piece
Aug 8, 2015; Bronx, NY, USA; Toronto Blue Jays starting and winning pitcher David Price (14) pitches in the seventh inning against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. The Blue Jays defeated the Yankees 6-0. Mandatory Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports
The Trade Piece: David Price
David Price’s 2.35 ERA falls just behind Gray and fellow Astro Scott Kazmir, and his fifth-place 1.07 WHIP is nearly as impressive as Gray’s. While he has far more punchouts that the A’s ace, Price still ranks a distant fourth in strikeouts, trailing Kluber’s 186 with just 156 of his own.
Price has also pitched almost exactly the same amount of innings as Gray – 161 compared to Grays’ 161.2 – and they’ve both had three complete games. Might Price be the real competition for Gray?
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Like Kluber and Hernandez, Price already has a Cy Young of his own. He acquired his in 2012 as a Tampa Bay Ray, when he went 20-5 with a 2.56 ERA in 211 innings, amassing 205 strikeouts along the way. While Price isn’t having that kind of season, he is having an especially good year, and Gray may have to worry about the new Blue Jays’ ace swooping in and stealing his spotlight.
Price does have a few shortcomings. He’s 11-4 right now, and while his losses are low enough to perhaps convince voters to look the other way about his low win total, he’s going to have to pick up a few more victories by the end of the season.
In the same way Hernandez is a threat because voters have shown a propensity to ignore advanced metrics and focus on more traditional measures of greatness, it seems possible that Price could slip ahead of Gray due to his role with the Jays. While Gray is on a losing club, Price is considered the piece that could help push the Blue Jays into the playoffs. Even though postseason performance does not count towards awards voting, voters may give special consideration towards the contributions of Price in relation to the Blue Jays’ successful season.
Of course, if the Blue Jays somehow falter and miss the playoffs, Price’s chances become slimmer. Then everything comes down to…
Next: Cy Young Candidate: The Newcomer
Jul 14, 2015; Cincinnati, OH, USA; American League pitcher Dallas Keuchel (60) of the Houston Astros throws against the National League during the first inning of the 2015 MLB All Star Game at Great American Ball Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
The Newcomer: Dallas Keuchel
Dallas Keuchel is the biggest threat to Gray, by any measurement. His 2.40 ERA is slightly higher, but he’s still ranked fourth among American League starters. The Astros’ ace also has 13 wins, 143 strikeouts, and the third-best WHIP in the league, at 1.01. Keuchel trails only Kluber in innings pitched, with 164.2, and he also has three complete games.
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Unlike the other three candidates, Keuchel is the only pitcher on Gray’s level who does not already have a Cy Young Award in his possession. The 27-year-old has a trajectory similar to that of Kluber, in that his first two seasons were treacherous: 3-8 with a 5.27 ERA, and 6-10 with a 5.15 ERA, respectively. However, last year he made strong advances in every category and turned into a very formidable opponent.
In 2014, Keuchel finished 12-9 with a 2.93 ERA and 146 strikeouts in exactly 200 innings. He had also thrown a league-leading five complete games. While he wasn’t exactly Cy Young material last season, he was very close, and he’s continued to improve in 2015.
Keuchel’s accomplishments last season were done on a bad Astros club, in a situation very similar to the one Gray finds himself in this year. Poor defense and a lack of a potent lineup may hurt Gray in the same manner that it hurt Keuchel. The Oakland Athletics’ bullpen’s inability to hold leads could also force Gray to miss out in the win column, which has the potential to give the edge to Keuchel and bringSonny Gray’s Cy Young candidacy to an abrupt end.