Trading Brandon Moss would be stupid

Where have we heard this before? Oh right, when an Athletics official reportedly said “Trading Josh Donaldson would be stupid” in October. About two months later, Donaldson is in Canada so…disclaimer: it’s very difficult to try to figure out what’s going on in Billy Beane’s head.

That being said, first baseman/left fielder Brandon Moss has been the center of the A’s latest trade rumors. After an excellent first half last year in which he hit .268 with 21 home runs, he struggled mightily in the second half, hitting just 173. That lack of production was probably due to a hip injury, which he underwent surgery for this offseason.

Right now, Moss’s value is much lower than it was at the all-star break last year or even last offseason. We’re unsure about which Brandon Moss will show up next year — the all-star from the first half or the scrub from the second half? He just turned 31 and may not bounce back to his previous 30-home run form, and he may not rebound well from his surgery.

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The point is, there are plenty of question marks surrounding Moss this offseason, and now is not the right time to trade him. Trading him now would be selling low — the opposite of what they did with Cespedes and Donaldson when they sold high.

I understand the A’s philosophy about star players, and I fully support the rationale behind the Cespedes and Donaldson moves and even a potential Jeff Samardzija move. But I don’t understand why Beane would flip Moss now for a B-level prospect, when he could command an A-level prospect coming off of a stronger season. Unless the A’s have no faith that Moss will do better than he did last year, I would take the risk and let him rebuild his value.

However there is something to be said for the cost that they will cut with a potential trade. He’s eligible for arbitration for the next two seasons, and estimated to make about $7 million next season, and probably more in 2016. It’s no secret that the A’s don’t like to go all out with their payroll, and I understand that, but there are other ways to cut costs.

I’d much rather see Samardzija and his 1-year ~10 million dollar contract get traded for a top-notch prospect, or, as our own Nick Avila said, Scott Kazmir and his 1-year 11 million dollar contract could land a decent return as well. Even if the A’s are just trying to save some money, there are better ways to shed the extra salary.

It’s also true that this offseason, the market is saturated with pitchers, and many teams have a serious need for a big power bat in their lineup. While this probably helps Moss’s value now, I still think that Beane will be able to find a more desperate team at the all-star break when some team is scrambling to stay in contention and wants a big bat. Also, by that time Moss will (hopefully) have rebuilt his value to the point that he will fetch an elite prospect in return.

I like Moss, and I understand that he will probably eventually be traded. Now is just not the right time to cash in this particular chip. Unless Beane is completely blown away by an offer from a desperate team, he should hold off on trading Moss this offseason.