Sep 26, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Oakland Athletics manager Bob Melvin (6) watches his team take on the Oakland Athletics during the game at Globe Life Park in Arlington. The Athletics defeated the Rangers 6-2. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Just as all A’s fans are getting excited for spring training, I’m here to crush everybody’s hopes and dreams.
That’s a little extreme, but I’m still going to give everyone a heavy dose of realism. These are five players who I believe will disappoint A’s fans and not produce as hoped.
Dont’ get me wrong, I absolutely want these players to succeed. I love being right, but I love it even more when the A’s do well, and as you’ll see these players are supposed to make serious impacts this year.
So here’s hoping that all of these picks and predictions are completely wrong. Remember, I’m the same guy who thought the Jim Johnson trade was an excellent pickup. Oops.
Sep 12, 2014; Seattle, WA, USA; Oakland Athletics pitcher Fernando Abad (56) throws the ball against the Seattle Mariners during the eighth inning at Safeco Field. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports
Abad was excellent last year, posting a 1.57 ERA and 0.85 WHIP, but his numbers beyond the surface raise some concerns. His BABIP against went from .325 in 2013 to .211 last year. Some of that change was probably due to mechanical adjustments that he made, but pure luck was probably the main cause. If opposing hitters get better luck against him, his numbers should rise significantly this year.
Also, opposing batters went just 1-for-17 on pitches in the middle of the strike zone, according to Baseball Prospectus. Abad clearly got some breaks there as well, and this year expect more of those hittable pitches to be base hits.
The good news is that Abad was so good last year that even if he regresses this year, he can still be a decent middle relief option. With many other talented arms in the bullpen, Abad shouldn’t be asked to do anything more, and he should still be better than the average middle reliever in the league. My projection for him is an ERA around the 3.5 range and a WHIP around 1.25.
Feb 25, 2014; Jupiter, FL, USA; Miami Marlins Mark Canha poses during media day at Roger Dean Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Barr-USA TODAY Sports
Canha is a rule-5 player, so if he doesn’t make the 25-man roster he’ll have to be offered back to the Miami Marlins, his original team. While that certainly helps his chances of making the roster, remember that he still has never played in the major leagues. He’s worked hard in the minors and put together a strong season last year in AAA, but he can’t be a shoo-in for a roster spot if he hasn’t proved himself yet.
There have been many quadruple-A level players who are too good for AAA but not good enough for the majors. Canha could be a big leaguer, or he could be a quadruple-A guy. If Canha struggles in spring training, the A’s shouldn’t bend over backwards to keep him at the expense of other players who look strong in camp.
Nate Freiman is his main competition for that roster spot, and if Freiman significantly outperforms him in spring training the A’s shouldn’t feel an obligation to keep Canha. I want Canha to succeed, but even with his restrictions he’ll need to earn that roster spot.
My prediction for him is that he (barely) makes the roster out of spring training, struggles in a platoon role in April and eventually the A’s figure he’s not worth it and he gets offered back to the Marlins in May.
Sep 17, 2014; Pittsburgh, PA, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman Ike Davis (15) hits a three run home run against the Boston Red Sox during the fifth inning at PNC Park. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
I’ve already gone in-depth on Davis in a piece where I explain that I don’t have a good gut feeling about him this year. I’m not sure how much he’ll regress, but if the expectation is that he will be close to the production level of Brandon Moss over the past few years that is a mistake.
Last year, Davis hit .236 with 10 home runs in 397 plate appearances, and I find it hard to believe that moving to a pitcher’s park will help him. Like Canha, he’ll have to earn his playing time, and at best he’ll be a mediocre platoon player this year. Fans expecting him to replicate his 32-homer season in 2012 will be sorely disappointed.
My prediction for him is a .230/.310/.360 slash line with about eight home runs in roughly 350 plate appearances.
Aug 29, 2014; Anaheim, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics reliever Jesse Chavez (60) delivers a pitch against the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. The Angels defeated the Athletics 4-0. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Chavez has gone from a reliever to a starter back to a reliever and now maybe back to a starter. As Neftali Feliz and Joba Chamberlain will tell you, all of that switching is not easy to do. Coming off of the biggest workload he’s ever had, the 31-year-old Chavez may not be an easy choice for one of the back of the rotation spots.
In his first 15 starts his ERA was 2.71, but in his last six starts last year, Chavez’s ERA jumped to 5.51, probably due to his heavy workload in the first half. The A’s have been careful with him, but don’t be surprised if he spends some time on the DL this year. The worst-case scenario is that he tries to play through discomfort and fatigue and struggles as a result.
My prediction for him is that he is the fifth starter at the beginning of the season and eventually moves to a long-relief role. At the end of the season he’ll have an ERA around 4.5 and a WHIP around 1.3, and he’ll have spent at least a month on the DL.
Sep 26, 2014; Arlington, TX, USA; Oakland Athletics center fielder Coco Crisp (4) scores during the third inning against the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
No, not Coco. He can’t be. Coco is perfect and will never regress, right?
Time to snap out of denial mode, A’s fans. The fan favorite is now 35 years old, injury-prone and relies heavily on his speed. That’s a really bad combination. His stolen base numbers have declined every year since 2011, and he’s missed at least 26 games each of the last seven years.
Last year, Coco had a strong first half but completely fell apart in the second half. That basically mirrored the A’s season, which contributes to the narrative of “As Coco goes, the A’s go.”
Well it may finally be time for the A’s to figure out another way to go. As much as I’d like to just attribute his poor second half to injuries, it’s foolish to think that his broken-down body is ready for a full season of center field duties. After all of the various injuries, especially the chronic neck ones, the well-past-his-prime Crisp does not have a bright playing future ahead of him.
Crisp’s defensive struggles scare me the most. His -1.5 dWAR last year was by far his worst ever. In the past he relied on his speed and reflexes to make up for his weak arm, but as he gets older and he starts to lose his speed he becomes a defensive liability.
And looking at his contract is even more sickening. He’s making 11 million this year and next year, and has a $13 million vesting option for 2017. Crisp may become the poster boy for why Billy Beane hates giving generous contract extensions to fan favorites.
The good news for the A’s is that Crisp’s backup, Craig Gentry is an excellent man to take over the job. His 1.2 dWAR and 20 steals in just 94 games last year made him one of the best fourth outfielders in the game. Though he hit just .252, his BABIP was .314, well below his career average of .333. Expect his batting average to increase while continuing to bring elite defense and baserunning.
My projection for Crisp is a batting average in the .230s, 3 home runs, 12 steals and terrible defense in about 90 games. Gentry will hit .280 with 30 steals, excellent defense and will regularly be the starting centerfielder.
