Brett Lawrie: X-Factor for the 2015 Oakland Athletics
By Lance Marlow
Feb 28, 2015; Mesa, AZ, USA; Oakland Athletics third baseman Brett Lawrie (15) poses for a portrait during Photo Day at HoHoKam Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Plenty has been made about the Josh Donaldson for Brett Lawrie (and others) trade this offseason, so I’m not going to delve into how Brett Lawrie compares to Donaldson and vice versa. What I do want to explore, is just how valuable Lawrie will be to the 2015 Oakland Athletics. In my, not so humble opinion, Brett Lawrie will be the difference between competing in October and getting a head start on the 2016 offseason.
I know I just said that we’re not here to compare Donaldson and Lawrie, but there is one number comparison that I’d like to discuss: 391 vs 302. That is the number of games each of these two players have played in the last three seasons combined. Donaldson has played in 89 more games than Lawrie, and he was in the minor leagues for much of the 2012 season.
Basically, Josh Donaldson has a history of being dependable; Lawrie, not so much.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying Brett Lawrie can’t be dependable. Many people will argue that most of his injuries have been flukes, and he’s even said himself that switching from AstroTurf to natural grass will really help him stay healthy.
The question here is what if he still can’t stay healthy?
The A’s have a few viable options at 3rd base, including Marcus Semien, Ben Zobrist, and even Eric Sogard, but if Manager Bob Melvin is forced to play any of these options it could severely alter the outlook of the entire season.
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You might say, “Yeah Lance, but you could say that about any player at any position,” and you would be mostly right. However, all of the other positions could withstand the loss much more efficiently. If any of the outfielders were to get injured, we have multiple other players that could fill in without taking away from another position. Even plausible minor league options. Same with all the other infield positions, the starting rotation, and bullpen.
If Lawrie was to take an extended trip on the DL, let’s say Semien fills in for him. Now Sogard is our starting shortstop, and our offense has been significantly downgraded, especially vs LHP. According to Fangraphs’ 2015 projections, Semien is projected to have a .255/.333/.406 slash line vs. Sogard’s .240/.301/.314. The numbers get even more lopsided if you try to replace Zobrist at 2nd base with Sogard.
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Now, consider these losses in production, and add the loss of Lawrie’s projected .263/.327/.431 on top of that. That is a huge difference. These projections obviously are ignoring Lawrie’s defensive prowess as well. As of right now, the Oakland Athletics have no sustainable way to replace Brett Lawrie, if he hits the DL, and remain competitive.
For those of you who don’t believe that statistics are everything in baseball, I have an additional argument for you as well. Reports out of training camp suggest that Lawrie will be a leader of this team, and that his eccentric personality exudes positive energy. An energy that will lift everyone around him. He is a fierce competitor that will force the rest of the team to play at maximum effort. He is the type of player that makes an entire roster better. All Star closer, Sean Doolittle, said last week that, “this year’s team is younger and hungrier than last season’s.” I believe that Lawrie is a major driving force behind that “something to prove” attitude.
At the end of the day, Brett Lawrie will need to remain healthy, or the A’s are in a position to quickly fall out of contention.