The Oakland Athletics are 7-7 in the 2015 season’s early weeks. The A’s rank second in baseball in runs scored, fifth in batting average and on-base plus slugging percentage, and third in earned run average, despite the third most innings pitched.
What does all that mean? The A’s are excelling at hitting and pitching, but have just a .500 record to show for it. A big problem that is affecting their win-loss record has been holding leads late in games. The A’s could have as many as four additional wins had the bullpen been able to nail things down late in the game.
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In fact, according to baseball reference, the team’s pythagorean win-loss record ( a function of runs scored and allowed) is 10-4. They have outscored their opponents 73-46 through the first 14 games.
Are the early numbers a mirage? Can they be sustained or are the A’s destined to regress?
I think the A’s can be expected to continue scoring runs at their current rate and eventually we’ll start to see them prevent runs in the more crucial situations.
Apr 13, 2015; Houston, TX, USA; Oakland Athletics left fielder Mark Canha (20) drives in a run with a hit during the first inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Mark Simon of ESPN recently posted some interesting numbers on twitter. He shared the league leaders in hard-hit rate for both batters and pitchers. Hard-hit rate is a number that indicates the type of contact batters are making on pitches they make contact with. The harder they hit, the more likely they will reach base safely.
Athletics pitchers rank 10th in baseball with a .220 hard-hit average, which is 14.1 percent. While Athletics hitters rank second with a .280 hard-hit average, or 19 percent. For reference, league average is 16 percent.
Marcus Semien, Stephen Vogt, Billy Butler, Sam Fuld, Ike Davis, and Mark Canha all rank among the game’s best in terms of hard-hit average. Semien, Fuld, and Canha rank among the leaders of hard-hit balls that turned into outs.
What does this all mean?
It means that Oakland hitters are making solid contact most times at the plate and that their high runs scored total isn’t a fluke.
On the flip side, Oakland pitchers are avoiding hard contact. And with the exception of a couple of Nelson Cruz home runs, the bullpen would been in great shape.
Look for these trends to continue, but also look for these trends to straighten this team out and the pile up the wins.