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Billy Butler, Like Adam Dunn, Is a Bad Fit for Oakland Athletics

By Andrew Dambrauskas |

“But what can he do? … He gets on base.”

This quote from Moneyball is the philosophy guiding nearly all of the Oakland Athletics’ roster moves in the Billy Beane era. The 2002 season seems like a long time ago, but the philosophy is still alive. Marcus Semien’s .325 OBP is the reason the organization forgives his Major League leading 22 errors. Mark Canha’s .321 OBP is the reason the A’s will protect his Rule 5 status, despite his sometimes questionable fielding in the outfield.

Though A’s fans groan every time the shortstop fails to properly field a routine grounder, this philosophy mostly works. The A’s have scored 304 runs, which ranks second in the Majors, and they have done this despite being eighteenth in the Majors in home runs. That means that a smaller portion of their runs are scoring on the long ball, and that they score more runs simply by getting on base.

In order for this to work, the men that get on base have to be able to score. This is why Billy Butler is a bad fit for the Athletics’ system. Butler is not having problems getting to first base, as he is hitting .260/.316/.379. However, that is only half of Beane’s winning equation. Butler’s baserunning statistics show that he is unable to score once on base, and this is hurting all of the other faster base runners in a speedy Athletics lineup.

This season, the Athletics have gotten base hits or doubles 30 times while Butler has been on first or second base. Of those 30 opportunities, he has only taken an extra base five times, or 17 percent of the time. For comparison, the speedy Semien has taken extra bases in 55 percent of his 20 opportunities, and even Stephen Vogt (who had foot surgery in the offseason) has successfully taken extra bases in 29 percent of his 32 opportunities. These extra bases are what create runs for a ball club that does not hit very many home runs.

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This means that Butler’s sole purpose in the Athletics’ lineup is to hit for power, and that is a grave concern for a front office that agreed to pay him $30 million for three years. His four home runs this season are only the sixth-highest on the Athletics’ roster. Since his All-Star season with the Kansas City Royals in 2012, he has seen a rapid decline in home runs (netting only nine in 151 games last season). This almost makes his .316 OBP a disadvantage; not only is he failing to bring in runners with home runs, but he is holding up traffic on the bases by getting on base in a third of his plate appearances.

This is the same reason that Adam Dunn’s 25 games with the Athletics in 2014 were less than remarkable. The Athletics brought him in to fill a perceived power gap left by Yoenis Cespedes. Like Butler, Dunn got on base a third of the time with a .316 OBP. Like Butler, he was unable to take extra bases when being advanced by other batters, snagging extra bases only 25 percent of the time. Like Butler, he got on base but did not score. Why did he fail to fill the void left by Cespedes? Because Cespedes, who advanced for extra bases 50% of the time, could get on base and score.

This does not mean that there is no suitable home for Butler. He could be a valuable asset to a team like the Baltimore Orioles. They steal very few bases, hit lots of home runs, and could certainly use a platoon at the designated hitter position, since Steve Pearce is having a disappointing season at the plate. Butler’s ability to get to first might actually turn into runs scored in an offense like that.

However, the Athletics are a team that is built to get on base and frustrate opposing defenses with speed and smart base running. Billy Butler cannot provide speed, slugging, or defense. The team has a viable DH option in Mark Canha who can both hit and run, and if the team decides to go with him, Billy Butler’s years in Oakland will be forgettable.

Next: Stephen Vogt Deserves To Represent Oakland Athletics In All-Star Game

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