Oakland Athletics: Ranking The Top Ten Prospects

Jun 17, 2015; Omaha, NE, USA; Florida Gators runner Richie Martin (12) rounds the bases after hitting a home run against the Miami Hurricanes in the sixth inning in the 2015 College World Series at TD Ameritrade Park. The Gators won 10-2. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Thorson-USA TODAY Sports

Ranking the Top Ten Oakland Athletics Prospects

2015 has been a seriously disappointing season for A’s fans. With such a large portion of the team’s losses occurring in close one-run games, there was a general feeling that the team was better than its record. This perception, combined with the second wild card spot not being completely out of reach and the trade deadline quickly approaching all contributed to the tension surrounding whether or not the A’s would become sellers.

Having gone 4-7 since the All-Star break, that time has finally come. Billy Beane is hitting the reset button, and snagging as much young talent as he can in exchange for his best big league players. 

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With the departure of their three highest trade pieces, it is a fair assumption that the A’s have acquired the best of the minor league talent that they will receive in this year’s trade season. With all of the most important pieces now accounted for, it is time for the A’s to evaluate what kind of talent they have in their minor league system.

The following is a new ranking of the A’s top ten prospects after the trades. These rankings consider the following variables from most important to least important:

• Talent: The talent score is based on the 20-80 scouting grades given to each prospect. For position players, scouting grades rate hitting, power, running, throwing, and fielding. Pitchers are ranked based on the strength of each of their pitches, as well as control. My total talent score converts the scouting grade into a 0-100 scale, where 50 is average. Keep in mind that 70 percent of all prospects (and that includes most of the A’s) fall somewhere around the 50 mark; only the best prospects are higher than this.
• Minor League Performance: The Minor Leagues are where prospects hone their skills and improve as players. This score weighs players based on their current numbers, as well as if they are demonstrating an upward trend as they progress to more advanced leagues. (0-30 scale)
• Major League Need: This is a bonus given to prospects that play a position that is in high need on the Major League roster right now. This means that pitchers and middle infielders will get slightly more preference than catchers and corner infielders. (0-20 scale)

[Each prospect’s final score is the sum of these three scores divided by 1.5, so that we end up with a 100-point scale.]

Whereas most lists will judge a prospect’s value solely on their talent, this list will differ because it will consider the A’s need for that particular position. Sorry, catchers and third basemen – Stephen Vogt and Brett Lawrie are going to be around for awhile, and that bullpen needs some help.

To quickly recap the pieces that entered the A’s organization in the last week, the new acquisitions include pitchers Aaron Brooks, Sean Manaea, Casey Meisner, and Daniel Mengden, as well as catcher Jacob Nottingham. The 2015 draft picks that shake up the organization include shortstop Richie Martin, pitcher Dakota Chalmers, and outfielder Skye Bolt.

And now, onto the rankings.

Next: Prospect Countdown: Ten Through Eight

Feb 28, 2015; Mesa, AZ, USA; Oakland Athletics starting pitcher Sean Nolin (47) poses for a portrait during Photo Day at HoHoKam Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

No. 10: Jacob Nottingham, C

Talent: 50/100
Minor League Performance: 27/30
Major League Need: 8/20
Final Score: 57

Jacob Nottingham is an incredibly promising catcher that was acquired from the Houston Astros’ organization in the Scott Kazmir trade. His chief upside is his power bat. The University of Arizona offered Nottingham a football scholarship to play tight end, so he has the build of a powerful athlete. He is certainly putting on a show with this strength in the minors.

In 2015, he is batting .321 with a .915 OPS and 14 home runs. He is absolutely terrorizing minor league pitching, and he is only getting better. Scouts skewered him for not being able to hit for average coming out of college, but his improving plate discipline is defying that criticism.

The only thing working against Nottingham is that Vogt and Josh Phegley are catchers already in the majors that are signed through 2020 and 2021 respectively. The front office is certainly dealing away pieces that were slated for free agency this or next year, but it looks like the catchers are here to stay.

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This is good news for Nottingham, though. There will be no urgency to rush him through the minor league system, and he will certainly be ready for the bigs when the A’s need him.

Nottingham ranks tenth right now, but he will be a top-three prospect when the A’s need for catchers rises. He will be ready by the end of 2017, which is likely when the front office will begin listening to offers for Vogt and Phegley.

No. 9: Sean Nolin, LHP

Talent: 40/100
Minor League Performance: 27/30
Major League Need: 20/20
Final Score: 58

The scouting grades of the newly-acquired pitchers in the A’s system heftily outperform Nolin’s, which is why Nolin has tumbled in most A’s prospect rankings. He has a couple of things working in his favor, though.

The first is that Nolin is the most Major League-ready pitcher in the A’s system. For most of the 2015 season, he has been considered the next go-to person to fill in a rotation spot behind Chris Bassitt. He spent five seasons in Toronto’s minor league system, and his stint in Nashville marks his sixth season in professional baseball. He is the most experienced of all of the A’s pitching prospects.

The second is that Nolin has been having a great season in Nashville. He has been on the Disabled List with a shoulder injury for much of the past month, but the starts he has made have been impressive. He holds a 2.67 ERA through 10 games, and his 1.40 WHIP is a bit deceiving (a pair of rough starts inflated this number, and it is not entirely representative of his body of work).

Before his current shoulder injury, Nolin had also fallen victim to a groin injury in 2014. The A’s may be somewhat worried that he is injury-prone, so he will be eased back into the rotation in Nashville before being given big league consideration. His stuff is not quite as good as the other pitchers on this list, but he can rely on his poise and experience when the A’s finally call him up to the majors.

No. 8: Dillon Overton, LHP

Talent: 53/100
Minor League Performance: 14/30
Major League Need: 20/20
Final Score: 58

Dillon Overton turned down the Boston Red Sox when they drafted him out of high school in the 26th round of the 2010 draft. He instead got picked by the A’s in the second round of the 2013 draft out of the University of Oklahoma. This pick was a gamble, because he had suffered an injury that required Tommy John Surgery, but the A’s still saw value in his talent (especially his off-speed offerings).

Overton does not have an overpowering fastball, but his changeup and curveball are listed as above-average pitches. He is also known for having above-average control. This control is going to be the key for him going forward. He gets batters out by placing his fastball where it will not be hit out of the park, and then placing his offspeed pitches exactly where they need to be to get swings and misses.

His minor league numbers are mostly decent, but negative trends in WHIP and SO/W are the reason his minor league performance score comes in just a tick below average. From 2014 to 2015, his WHIP has inflated from 0.919 to 1.239. When he was promoted from High-A to Double-A, his SO/W lowered from 4.92 to 2.67. His value is going to depend on how well he can make adjustments to the stiffer competition in the more advanced leagues.

Overton cannot afford to suffer control issues. If he can correct this trend, he can make a run for the big league roster in 2017.

Next: Prospect Countdown: Seven And Six

Oct. 14, 2014; Mesa, AZ, USA; Oakland Athletics outfielder Matt Olson plays for the Mesa Solar Sox during an Arizona Fall League game against the Scottsdale Scorpions at Salt River Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

No. 7: Matt Olson, 1B/OF

Talent: 51/100
Minor League Performance: 23/30
Major League Need: 14/20
Final Score: 59

Matt Olson looked like a lock of a slugging prospect in 2014, when he hammered a .947 OPS in 138 games at High-A Stockton. When Addison Russell and Daniel Robertson were traded last year, Olson appeared to be the next top prospect in the A’s system.

Olson still has above-average talent, and the A’s never have problems finding a place for somebody who can play both first base and outfield, but he has had trouble adjusting to the tougher competition since being promoted to Class Double-A Midland over the offseason. His 77 walks are impressive, but his OPS is down over 150 points from last year at .789. Also, he averaged one home run every four games in Stockton last year. This has declined to one home run every eight games in 2015.

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The A’s are going to be counting on Olson’s power when they eventually call him up to the majors, so this decline in production is actually alarming. He is a competent first baseman, but he does not play the position so well that he is indispensable in the field. If he does not turn his production struggles around, it may be awhile before he is considered a top prospect again.

The A’s were hoping that he would be ready for the majors in 2016, but they did not anticipate the hold-up at Double-A this year. It looks like his services may need to wait until 2017 so that he can spend adequate time in Nashville.

No. 6: Richie Martin, SS

Talent: 53/100
Minor League Performance: 20/30
Major League Need: 15/20
Final Score: 59

Richie Martin was the A’s first-round draft pick in 2015 (20th overall), and he is a shortstop that is sensational to watch defensively. In addition to having a plus fielding ability, his speed and his arm strength are also rated in the plus category. This is a combination of tools that make him a perfect fit to play shortstop in the majors.

Martin is not expected to hit for power, but he runs fast enough that he is able to turn a lot of balls-in-play into hits. Think of Martin as a slightly slower version of Billy Burns that plays middle infield instead of outfield. His ability to induce hits with his speed would make him a valuable asset near the top of a team’s lineup.

He has only played 22 games at Short-Season Vermont, so it is difficult to read his numbers at the professional level right now. However, he is slashing .244/.333/.389 through 102 plate appearances for the Lake Monsters, which is a respectable beginning to a professional career. His .953 fielding percentage is considerably better than the .909 currently held by his chief rival in the A’s system, Franklin Barreto.

One of the perks of drafting college talent is that they should be Major League ready faster than somebody who is drafted out of high school. Martin should ascend through the A’s system quickly over the next two years. If he continues to develop, he should not have any problems making the big league roster in 2018.

Next: Five and Four

Feb 27, 2015; Surprise, AZ, USA; Oakland Athletics pitcher Sean Manaea poses for a portrait during photo day at Surprise Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

No. 3: Sean Manaea, LHP

Talent: 55/100
Minor League Performance: 23/30
Major League Need: 20/20
Final Score: 65

Sean Manaea was just acquired from the Royals in the deal that sent Ben Zobrist to Kansas City, and he is here to provide some much-needed depth to the pitching staff.

His fastball is a nightmare for batters. It fluctuates anywhere from 90 to 96 MPH, and he uses his 6’5” body to create a severe downward angle. The result is that it bears down on batters and induces uncomfortable swings.

The fastball is his main offering, but his slider is an acceptable secondary pitch, complemented by a changeup to keep batters guessing.

In 2014 when he pitched for High-A Wilmington, he owned a 3.11 ERA and threw 146 strikeouts, or 10.8 SO/9. He followed this up with a 3.66 ERA and 10.1 SO/9 ratio in High-A in 2015, as well.

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His minors score could be higher, but he has had a rough time with batters since his recent promotion to Double-A. He has only thrown two games in Double-A, so we won’t judge this small of a sample size too harshly, but so far batters are seeing his pitches a lot better and getting more hits off of him. His Class A WHIP of 1.322 is now a 2.143 in Double-A, and he is also now throwing the highest proportion of walks that he has in his professional career.

This is a slightly worrisome trend because control is not known to be one of Manaea’s better tools. The A’s will be watching very closely to see how quickly he can figure out these sudden control issues. If he can overcome them, Manaea will certainly audition for a spot on the A’s rotation during Spring Training next year.

No. 2: Dakota Chalmers, RHP

Talent: 56/100
Minors: 25/30
Need: 20/20
Final Score: 67

Dakota Chalmers was one of the biggest steals of the 2015 draft. The A’s were inexplicably able to pick him up in the third round and 97th overall, even though he was a candidate to be taken in the first round.

Chalmers is the only one of the A’s top three draft picks from 2015 that was drafted directly out of high school. He blew away opposing hitters with a fastball that consistently hit anywhere between 92-95 MPH, and sometimes topped out at 98 MPH. His curveball and slider are currently ranked as above average in the scouting report, though these will probably develop into plus offerings with time to develop in the minor leagues.

Simply put, Chalmers is made out of raw talent, and a few years of development will make him an incredibly important part of the A’s rotation.

The organization is currently keeping his starts short in the Rookie League. He has pitched 10 innings through five starts, and he has kept runs to a minimum while owning a 1.80 ERA. His nine walks through those ten innings are partially responsible for his 1.800 WHIP, but his control is certainly one of the pieces the organization will work on in the coming years.

MLB Prospect Pipeline ranks Chalmers as the A’s ninth overall prospect, but that is an incredible underestimation of his ability. Watch for Chalmers to be an incredibly productive homegrown talent that will be Major League ready by 2019.

Next: Prospect Countdown: Number One

Jul 3, 2015; Oakland, CA, USA; Fireworks above the stadium after the game at O.co Coliseum. The Seattle Mariners defeated the Oakland Athletics 9-5. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

No. 1: Franklin Barreto, SS

Talent: 84/100
Minors: 27/30
Need: 15/20
Final Score: 84/100

Of all of the A’s prospects, Barreto’s talent stands out as an entire standard deviation better than all of the rest. When Beane traded away Josh Donaldson, he got Lawrie because he needed a third baseman immediately, but what he really wanted was Barreto.

The A’s used to have a shortstop in their system that stood out as being on another level, but he was traded to the Cubs to acquire Jeff Samardzija. Beane sought out Barreto because he needed a replacement for Addison Russell.

Barreto may not have the defensive tools that Russell did. In fact, it is still possible that when Barreto is ready to be called up to the majors, they are going to place him at second base. He is only 19 years old, so the organization is going to continue to build his defensive skills, and make a determination about which position he will play when he is closer to the finished product.

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Barreto’s real value is that he has an incredible knack for hitting. Many of the A’s middle infielders have been injury-prone the last several seasons, so the team has lacked consistent production from these positions for years. Barreto offers a solution to this problem.

Through three minor league seasons, he is hitting .297/.329/.492, and he is only showing signs of getting better. He has found his home run swing this year too, as he has already doubled the number of home runs that he hit last year with Vancouver.

Barreto will be Major League ready in 2017, so it is up to the front office to decide whether or not the Marcus Semien experiment has succeeded or failed by then. If Semien’s defense improves and he does become the A’s long term shortstop, Barreto will likely be shifted over to second base. This would probably make for some questionable defense up the middle, but it would certainly be a powerful duo at the plate.

Next: A's Trade Ben Zobrist To Royals For Sean Manaea And Aaron Brooks