Oakland Athletics Need These Five Free Agents in 2016
Aug 13, 2015; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Oakland Athletics third baseman Danny Valencia (26) flips his bat away after striking out against Toronto Blue Jays in the eighth inning at Rogers Centre. The Athletics lost 4-2. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Who Can Help the Oakland Athletics in 2016?
The Oakland Athletics’ roster is in need of some major changes before the beginning of next season. While some teams are making a playoff push, the A’s are already planning for their 2016 campaign. To avoid being in that same situation next season, Billy Beane needs to acquire some free agent talent to fill the holes in the roster.
Of course, budget constraints – whether they are real or self-imposed – will limit which players the Athletics are able to acquire. The trades of Scott Kazmir, Tyler Clippard and Ben Zobrist freed up plenty of cash, but the team will likely still be hesitant to spend for the top free agents.
With that in mind, who should the A’s target this winter?
First, let’s look at one possible version of the projected roster next season:
Catcher: Stephen Vogt
First Baseman: Mark Canha
Second Baseman: Eric Sogard
Shortstop: Marcus Semien
Third Baseman: Brett Lawrie
Left Fielder: Coco Crisp
Center Fielder: Billy Burns
Right Fielder: Josh Reddick
Designated Hitter: Billy Butler
The bench will likely include Danny Valencia and catcher Josh Phegley, as well as two other players. If the A’s are smart, they’ll ditch Sam Fuld, move Crisp to the bench and use their cash to find a true everyday outfielder and another reliable bench player.
There are several top-tier free agents on the market, but the A’s are likely to skip past those and go straight for the scrapheap. With that in mind, here are five free agents the Oakland Athletics should target – and the five second-tier options that the team is more likely to sign instead.
First up:
Next: Outfield: Dexter Fowler or...
Aug 1, 2015; Milwaukee, WI, USA; Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Jean Segura (9) completes a double play after forcing out Chicago Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler (24) in the fifth inning at Miller Park. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland Athletics’ Best Option:
Dexter Fowler, OF
Age: 29
Dexter Fowler has historically offered teams a nice mix of speed, on-base ability and a touch of power. While he has struggled this season in terms of average, that might just push him into the Oakland Athletics’ price range. In his final year of arbitration, Fowler made $9.5 million with the Cubs, although some might say he’s still earned it.
He is batting just .238, this season but he’s still managed to pull together a .715 OPS and swipe 17 bases. Fowler also plays a strong outfield, and in 890 games over eight seaon with the Rockies, Astros and Cubs, he’s averaged .266/.362/.415.
He could be just a bit too expensive for the A’s though. And in that case…
The Lite Version:
Rajai Davis, OF
Age: 34
Rajai Davis is certainly getting older. He’s only swiped 17 bags this season, and is batting just .251/.305/.410 for the Detroit Tigers. And yet, there are plenty of reason to like him. For instance, his career strikeout rate is just 16.9 percent, and this season, 40 percent of his hits have gone for extra bases.
Davis still has speed, but when a player bats in front of Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera and the Martinezes, there’s no reason to take extra chances. Davis’s decline in stolen bases reflects this, even though some of the slow-down is admittedly due to age. No, he won’t swipe 50 bags, like he did in his final season for Oakland, but he will make a much bigger impact than Fuld would.
But they aren’t the only free agent outfielders who will be on the open market:
Next: Outfielder: Nori Aoki, or...
Aug 4, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; San Francisco Giants left fielder Nori Aoki (23) hits a home run against the Atlanta Braves in the ninth inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland Athletics’ Best Option
Nori Aoki, OF
Age: 30
Nori Aoki has one of the most team-friendly deals in baseball. He’s batting .304/.370/.389 this season, and he’s also swiped 12 bags. But the most impressive thing on Aoki’s resume is his strikeout rate. This season, he’s struck out in just 5.4 percent of at-bats. That’s only slightly lower than his career average of 7.6 percent. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 0.69, which is phenomenal considering the league average is 2.58.
Aoki would be a great addition to the Oakland Athletics because of his speed and slap-hitting ability, but there’s a very good chance that the Giants will pick up his $5.5 million team option next season. And since there aren’t many other strong outfield options, the A’s should take a look at…
The Lite Version:
David Murphy, OF
Age: 33
David Murphy doesn’t have quite the instincts on the basepaths, but he’s a very good outfielder, and he should be available next season. The Angels’ can pick up his $7 million option next season or buy out his contract for $500,000, and unless he has a stellar final two months, they’re likely to do the latter.
Murphy spent seven years in Texas before signing a big free agent contract with Cleveland. After two down years, Murphy appears to be back. Before being traded to the Los Angeles Angels at the deadline, he was batting .296/.344/.437 with the Tribe. While he’s not nearly has good as Aoki, Murphy has a 15.1 percent career strikeout rate, which is largely affected by a bad 2009 season. In fact, since 2011, he has a 13.4 percent strikeout rate and an 8.2 walk rate.
If the Angels decide not to keep Murphy, the A’s would be foolish not to pick him up. He’s susceptible to left-handed pitchers, but not to the extent that Reddick is. He platooned with Ryan Raburn in Cleveland primarily because the Indians stockpiled outfielders and could afford that luxury, but he’s a very capable everyday outfielder.
Next up, first base:
Next: First Base: Chris Davis, or...
Aug 9, 2015; Anaheim, CA, USA; Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis (19) is met by third baseman Manny Machado (13) in the dugout after a solo home run in the sixth inning off of Los Angeles Angels relief pitcher Cory Rasmus (not pictured) at Angel Stadium of Anaheim. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland Athletics’ Best Option:
Chris Davis, 1B
Age: 29
Chris Davis probably blew his biggest chance at being MLB’s favorite player when he was busted for PED use at the end of the 2014 season. But Davis has done everything in his power to win Baltimore Orioles fans back this year, crushing 31 home runs and batting .253/.338/.534.
Davis had a monster 2013 season, slugging 53 homers and batting in 138 RBIs. The A’s would love that kind of power on their team, and they could certainly use an upgrade at first base, but there are some major questions. How much did PEDs affect him, if at all? Why did his numbers decline so much in 2014, when he batted just .196 on the season?
The answer to the second question is probably simple – Davis was one of the most feared power hitters in the game, and his OBP was more than 100 points higher than his average. No one wanted to pitch to Davis, but he still wanted to hit home runs. That said, the O’s might extend a qualifying offer to the soon-to-be-free-agent slugger, and would he really be worth losing a draft pick AND picking up a major contract?
There’s a much cheaper option in….
The Lite Version:
Justin Morneau, 1B
Age: 35
Justin Morneau, who hasn’t played a game for the Rockies since mid-May. This may sound crazy, but if Morneau can stay healthy, he’s got plenty of power in his bat.
In 2014, Morneau batted .319/.364/.496 in 135 games, leading the National League in batting average, with the seventh-highest OPS in the game. He has a $9 million option for next season, but with a $750,000 buyout available, it’s likely that the ailing slugger will find himself on the market for much less.
The former Twin is no longer the player he was in his 2006 MVP season, but last year proved that he’s far from finished with the sport. In addition to being arguably the best hitter in the NL, he’s consistently ranked in the top-five in fielding percentage among first baseman.
Morneau’s downside, and the only factor that will keep him affordable if he does become a free agent, is his lengthy concussion history. He’s missed most of the 2015 season due to a concussion and cervical strain that he sustained on a diving play, and because he’s had a recurring problem with long-lasting concussion symptoms, the Rockies played it safe and kept him on the disabled list in a season that didn’t mean much for them anyway. Fear of this injury issue could lower his value, placing him squarely in the category of players the A’s typically target.
In addition to first base, the A’s could use a strong utility player:
Next: Utility Man: Howie Kendrick, or...
Jul 24, 2015; New York City, NY, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Howie Kendrick (47) scores past New York Mets catcher Kevin Plawecki (22) during the first inning at Citi Field. Mandatory Credit: Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports
Oakland Athletics’ Best Option
Howie Kendrick, Utility Man
Age: 31
When considering a second baseman worth $9.5 million, Howie Kendrick should be a player that comes to mind. That’s how much money he’s making with the Dodgers this season, and he’s earning it. Kendrick is batting .296/.341/.418, with nine home runs and six stolen bases on the season.
Kendrick is remarkably consistent. Throughout his career, he’s averaged .293/.333/.424, which is the 16th highest career average among active players. He doesn’t have any seasons that are particularly bad, or uniquely good. He’s dependable, and his defense is hardly something to complain about. In addition to second, he plays the outfield and first base, which would give the A’s some flexibility.
If the Oakland Athletics wanted to upgrade from Eric Sogard at second base, Kendrick would be the ideal player, because they know exactly what to expect from him. However, although Kendrick is on the disabled list at the moment, he’s only there because of a pulled hamstring that occurred last weekend. Unlike the situation with Morneau, a few weeks on the DL will not drag down Kendrick’s value.
Which means the A’s might have to consider…
The Lite Version
Ryan Raburn, Utility Man
Age: 34
Ryan Raburn is every bit as flexible as Kendrick, since he can play first, second, third or any outfield position. His flaw is that he lacks the consistency at the plate. Cleveland fans affectionately refer to him as “Odd-Year Raburn” and “Even-Year Raburn”, due to the fact he’s alternated terrible even-year seasons with terrific odd-year seasons throughout most of his career. Last season, he batted .200 and his OPS didn’t even top .550, but in 2013, he had a .901 OPS, and he’s batting .283/.363/.500 this year.
So should the A’s take a chance on the unpredictable “Even-Year Raburn”?
All signs point to yes, because believing a player’s performance is dictated by the number of the year is crazy talk. Raburn’s struggles last year had to do with a nagging injury, and his 2012 struggles had to do with just flat-out having a bad year with the Tigers.
The Indians do have a $3 million option on his contract for next season, but they can also buy it out for $100,000, which seems like a much wiser idea, given the fact that they have a plethora of young talent that just need room on the roster. If they decided to let Raburn walk, the Oakland Athletics should jump all over that contract, because Raburn can be much more useful than many of the A’s other bench options.
And finally, another pair of utility options:
Next: Utility Man: Ben Zobrist, or...
Aug 10, 2015; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Royals left fielder Ben Zobrist (18) gets a base hit against the Detroit Tigers during the third inning at Kauffman Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter G. Aiken-USA TODAY Sports
Ben Zobrist, Utility Man
Age: 34
It’s probably not necessary to recap Ben Zobrist’s season, since he spent much of it with the Athletics’. As a reminder, he’s batting .270/.355/.457 this season, and he has nine home runs in just 80 games, after missing some time with a knee injury.
Zobrist is only making $7.5 million this season, but he is going to get paid extraordinary amounts, given that the Royals were willing to give up one of their top pitching prospect for just three months of his assistance. He’ll also probably be worth a competitive balance pick, so there really isn’t much point to wasting any more words on him, because the Oakland Athletics don’t seek out top talent.
That leaves us with….
The Lite Version
Mike Aviles, Utility Man
Age: 34
Mike Aviles is not having a very good year, batting just .218/.274/.301, with four home runs and a pair of stolen bases. But there are extenuating circumstances. One of his twin four-year-old daughters is battling leukemia, which has greatly affected both the amount of games he’s been present for, and the quality of his play. The Indians even went so far as to refuse trade offers for the highly praised utility man, so that he could continue to play near the hospital where Adriana is being treated.
That doesn’t mean Aviles can’t be a valuable member of the team next season. He’s a more-versatile version of Eric Sogard, as he can play any defensive position except first base and catcher. He has a career average of .265/.297/.386, which isn’t an impressive line until it is compared to other equally versatile fielders. He has the potential to hit some home runs, although not typically into double-digits. Similarly, he’s had four seasons in which he’s swiped 14 bases, including last year, but he’s also had several single-digit seasons.
Aviles won’t blow anyone away, but he’s inexpensive and he is a valuable defensive asset.
Until the Oakland Athletics’ front office decides they’re ready to spend some money, second-tier players are the most likely options for the Athletics.