The Oakland Athletics got much more than they bargained for out of Stephen Vogt this year, when he hit .261/.341/.443, with 18 home runs, 58 runs and 71 RBIs. The All-Star catcher certainly put on show, both offensively and defensively, throwing out 32 percent of would-be base stealers.
Vogt was everything the A’s could have wanted from their everyday catcher, but will he be able to replicate those numbers next season?
It seems unlikely that Vogt will ever been as good as he was in 2015. There were no significant changes to the outcomes of his at-bats last year compared to previous seasons. He still hit line drives at roughly the same rate as always, and his groundball and flyball rates did not change enough to explain his success. In fact, there were only two significant changes to Vogt’s results. His walk rate jumped from 5.6 percent to 11 percent, and his strikeout rate rose from 13.6 percent to 19 percent.
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What all of those percentages mean is that Vogt didn’t seem to have a very good explanation for his success. Another way to look at it is that his batting average on balls put in play was .290 last season. This wasn’t abnormal for him, and typically, if a BABIP remains “normal”, that means the change in success level was real. But there’s nothing in Vogt’s history to suggest that he was due for improvement, so it’s hard to believe that his 2015 numbers are sustainable.
The hope is that Vogt’s sudden success coincides directly with his increase in playing time. His 136 games in 2015 were the most of any season, and using him both behind the plate and at first base was a good way to keep him in the lineup and give him some rest, which probably contributed to his surge in power. However, the Athletics will hopefully not be relying on Ike Davis at first base forever, and if they fill that spot with someone else who needs to be in the lineup daily, that might cut into Vogt’s playing time.
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The A’s backup catcher, Josh Phegley, batted .249/.300/.449 last season with nine home runs in just over half as many games as Vogt, so if Vogt falters, Phegley should be able to step in. If Vogt gets off to a slow start, the Athletics should consider giving Phegley a better look in 2016.