Oakland Athletics 2016 Preview: Outfielder Billy Burns

Last year, center fielder Billy Burns surprised everyone with an extremely successful rookie season. Before the start of 2015, most people expected that the outfielder would rely solely on his speed to earn and keep a spot on the major league roster. His ability to steal bases and cover a lot of ground in center field seemed to make him an ideal pinch runner or fourth outfielder. That was exactly how the Athletics used him when he made his major league debut in 2014, appearing in 13 games.

FanGraphs concurred with this general opinion, and also predicted that the speedy Burns would get about 300 plate appearances in 2015. Instead, Burns had 555 plate appearances, in which he batted .294/.334/.392 and even managed to hit five home runs and knock in 42 RBIs. If anything, he had fewer stolen bases than one might have expected from him – swiping “only” 26 bases, although that was still the third-highest total in the American League.

Can Burns replicate that kind of success in 2016? It’s always difficult to predict how a young player will perform in his second season, but it seems likely that he will do well for several reasons.

Last year, Burns hit .479 when swinging at the first pitch, with an OPS of 1.193. Four of his five home runs came on first pitch swings, as did four of his seven triples. Overall, he was able to rely on a pitcher’s desire to stay ahead in the count, especially as the A’s everyday leadoff batter. These leadoff at-bats were what truly made Burns an impact player. When leading off a game, he batted .327 with a .796 OPS in his first plate appearance. When leading off an inning, he hit .308/.342/.421.

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It would be easy to say that pitchers will be ready to make adjustments in 2016, but by the All-Star break last season, everyone in the league was well aware of Burns and his propensity to swing at the first thing he saw. The fact is, there’s little they can do to stop him. He’s not very powerful, but he’s capable of pulling the ball for a hit. Even with the defense brought in, Burns can leg out weak infield hits for a single. Last season, he had 30 infield hits and 5 bunt hits, according to FanGraphs.

Even throwing outside the zone and giving him less to hit didn’t seem to help. Burns swung at pitches outside of the strike zone in 36.9 percent of his at-bats last season, which is above league average, but he only struck out 14.6 percent of the time – well under the average of 20.4 percent. His 4.7 percent walk rate was considerably lower than the numbers he had posted throughout his minor league career, yet Burns still managed to reach base in a third of his plate appearances last year.

This drop in walk rate should mean that if pitchers do manage to make adjustments, Burns should be able to easily make his own adjustments in return. While swinging at the first pitch is a strategy that’s been successful so far, and he should absolutely stick to it until that changes, the ability to earn walks should keep him from prolonged struggles if that approach stops working. He’s consistently shown the ability to take walks at the minor league level, but in the majors, he’s too busy batting nearly .500 on first-pitch swings to reach base in that manner. If his average does take a hit as the first-pitch swing becomes less effective, he should be able to make up for it when his increased patience at the plate leads to a return to his normal walk rate.

There’s no reason to think that Burns can’t repeat his 2015 results. In September and October, when divisional opponents had seen him plenty of times, he continued to get hits, albeit at a slightly slower pace. It’s important to keep in mind that it was his rookie season, the A’s were eliminated, and three of the four division rivals were battling it out for playoff spots. Even still, he managed to bat .284 and hit a pair of home runs in the final month, including three hitting streaks of six games or more, against primarily AL West teams. If those clubs, who had seen him several times during the season in addition to watching video and reading scouting reports, weren’t able to put a stop to his first-pitch success, there’s little reason to think teams in 2016 will suddenly figure him out.

Prediction: Burns will get the majority of center field at-bats and will continue to be a spark for the Athletics’ in the leadoff spot. While his average might fall a few points as pitchers make adjustments in his sophomore season, his minor league numbers suggest that his walk rate should increase if he is forced to diversify his approach at the plate. Overall, 2016 should be a solid season for Burns.

Next: Interpreting the Chris Coghlan Trade

What do you think? Will Burns continue to have success against opposing pitchers in 2016, or will he find himself struggling to repeat an outstanding rookie campaign? Voice your opinion in the comments.