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Oakland A’s have worse chance of reaching World Series than Astros

By David Hill

SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 14: Oakland Athletics manger Bob Melvin wears a blue surgical-style mask in the dugout while watching the second game of a doubleheader against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on September 14, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. The Oakland Athletics beat the Seattle Mariners 9-0. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA - SEPTEMBER 14: Oakland Athletics manger Bob Melvin wears a blue surgical-style mask in the dugout while watching the second game of a doubleheader against the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on September 14, 2020 in Seattle, Washington. The Oakland Athletics beat the Seattle Mariners 9-0. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images) /
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Somehow, some way, the Oakland A’s are considered to have a worse chance of reaching the World Series than the Houston Astros do.

The Oakland A’s and the Houston Astros are two teams that are seemingly going in different directions. The A’s are sitting at 31-19, all but assured of not only reaching the postseason, but winning their division. Meanwhile, the Astros are considered to have a 0.3% chance of winning the division and have hovered around .500 for most of the season.

In theory, given the A’s success compared to the Astros, they should have a better chance at reaching the World Series. They would seemingly have an easier road to get to the Fall Classic than the Astros, especially in the first round.

But according to Fangraphs, that is not the case. While the A’s currently have a 5.4% chance to reach the World Series, that is not the best in their division. The Astros, somehow, have a 6.1% chance of getting there, the third best odds in the American League.

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These odds are not foolproof. They are determined by running the remaining season over 10,000 simulations, with the odds based on how frequently the event occurs. Based on those simulations, the Astros got to the World Series more frequently than the A’s were able to.

But this ignores the reality of the situation. The A’s are hurting right now, with Matt Chapman, Chad Pinder, and Stephen Piscotty all on the Injured List. However, with the exception of A.J. Puk, the pitching staff has been healthy. The A’s should be firing on all cylinders, at least pitching wise, when the postseason begins.

The Astros, meanwhile, are starting to get some pieces back. Lance McCullers Jr. returned on Wednesday. Justin Verlander may be back before the end of the regular season, although it is uncertain as to how much they can get from him. However, their offense has disappointed and the bullpen essentially consists of question marks. It is difficult to see how Houston would have a better chance of reaching the World Series, even with the A’s spate of injuries.

Next. A's injuries happening at worst possible time. dark

The Houston Astros are considered to have a better chance of reaching the World Series than the Oakland A’s. Good thing the games are played on the diamond.