The BBWAA Hall of Fame announcement will be made today at 3pm PST. You can follow along live on MLB Network starting at 1pm PST.
Ryan Thibodeaux & co. have a useful tracker that they've been using for several years, collecting public votes and using them to predict the classes ahead of time. According to their tracker, we have just over 50% of the ballot known to the public as of this morning.
There are currently four guys with varying chances of being elected: Adrian Beltre, Joe Mauer, Todd Helton, and Billy Wagner.
Beltre is tracking at 99%, and is a lock to get in. He'll most likely be joined by Mauer, who's current number of 83% should leave enough wiggle room for him to get the nod. Helton and Wagner are up in the air. They're tracking at 82% and 78.4%, respectively.
As they've noted previously, the private ballots typically lean toward small-hall, meaning those fringe guys won't get the votes. Players typically lose 5-8 percentage points once all of the private votes are accounted for.
Last year, Helton received 72.2% of votes, falling just shy of the 75% threshold. Wagner was a bit farther off, finishing with 68.1%. Beltre and Mauer are first-year candidates.
Who gets in?
Based on where those guys are at right now, my guess is that Helton joins Mauer and Beltre as inductees, with Wagner falling just shy of the mark. This is Wagner's 9th year on the ticket, so if he doesn't get the nod tomorrow he'll have one more shot before falling out of contention.
Outside of that group, there are a few players tracking just off the mark needed for induction.
Gary Sheffield, in his 10th and final year on the ballot, is tracking at 74.7%. It's a shame he'll likely fall short, as he was an exceptional hitter that catches a lot of flak for not being able to play defense. That his 509 homers and career .292/.393/.514 batting line won't be enough is an indictment on the voters, in my opinion.
Carlos Beltran, in his second year on the ballot, is tracking at 66.5%. Caught in the Astros cheating scandal back in 2017, Beltran's chances seemed to take a nosedive last year. With his numbers where they are, he should eventually get in.
Finally, Andruw Jones is tracking at 70.6% in his 7th year on the ballot. Jones was one of the best defensive outfielders of his era, and was no slouch at the plate. With three years left and just a little room left to make up, Jones should get the nod before he falls off.
It should be an exciting evening for all involved. Hopefully all four guys get elected in order to clear some of the names off the list and to make room for a decent crop of newly eligible players in 2025.