3 Athletics starting pitchers who will begin the 2024 season in Triple-A and 2 who won't

The Oakland Athletics have a number of question marks in the rotation heading into the spring. We still have over a month left before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, so there's time left for GM David Forst to make some adjustments to the roster.

We can say with confidence that JP Sears and Paul Blackburn will start the year in the A's rotation. Those two guys have had enough success at the big league level to warrant their inclusion regardless of the performance of anyone else in the discussion.

Ken Waldichuk was penciled into the rotation as well, but his injury status is unclear. The lefty underwent surgery to address a flexor tendon injury in his throwing elbow back in November. The A's mentioned at the time that they hoped Waldichuk would be ready for spring training but we haven't gotten any updates in the last two months.

Assuming that Waldichuk is part of the rotation when healthy, that leaves two open spots on the A's staff, with ten guys vying for the chance to pitch in Oakland. Let's take a look at some of the options and try to predict where they end up at the end of March.

Adrian Martinez struggled in 2023, splitting time between Triple-A and the majors. He started 12 of his 13 games at Triple-A, posting an 8.45 ERA with a lousy 7.71 FIP. His strikeout rate was an abysmal 12.6%, and he walked batters at an 11% clip.

His results in Oakland were much different, however. Martinez pitched primarily out of the bullpen for the A's, with 21 of his 22 appearances coming in relief. He posted a 4.75 ERA in 55 innings, struck out 19.5% of batters and lowered his walk rate to 7.9%.

It was a bit of a change for Martinez, who spent 2022 as a starter at both levels. His fastball played up out of the bullpen and once he got into a rhythm, he was fairly effective. Martinez was used as a piggyback starter on a number of occasions and it's possible the A's keep that concept going.

The biggest issue for Martinez is that if he's not going to eat innings, he's not going to be a primary option for Mark Kotsay and the A's. It's possible that Rule 5 pick Mitch Spence completely tanks in the spring and gets sent back to the Yankees, opening up a spot on the opening day roster, but outside of that there might not be space for him.

Martinez should be one of the first guys to get a look when the A's need pitching help in 2024. But based on his performance in 2023 and current expectations, he's most likely to start the year in Las Vegas and work his way into the conversation.

Going into 2023, MLB.com had Joey Estes as the Athletics' 24th ranked prospect. After their late-season update, he had jumped to 15th. Estes had a strong year at Double-A Midland, though he struggled in a late season callup to Triple-A, and in his cup of coffee in Oakland.

Estes started two games for the A's in September, the first of which went poorly but the second wasn't half bad. He threw 5.1 innings against the Twins, notching 5 strikeouts while giving up three runs and just one homer.

Estes' results in Double-A were encouraging. The young righty pitched 104.1 innings for the RockHounds, posting a 3.28 ERA with a 23.3% strikeout rate and a respectable 7.2% walk rate.

He has five distinct pitches that he uses frequently. The four-seamer doesn't have elite velocity, coming in at just over 93 mph, but he adds in a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup that he's used effectively in the minors.

He likely won't be a big strikeout guy but if he can figure out how to mix his pitches and limit hard contact, he could be a successful back end starter for the A's by the end of the year. Unfortunately for Estes, the competition ahead of him is a bit stronger, and he's likely going to end up starting the season in Las Vegas.

This one is cheating a bit, as Luis Medina is technically out of options, meaning the A's will have to either have him on the opening day roster, or DFA him. Based on talent, it seems unlikely that GM David Forst will opt for the latter. Therefore, we should expect to see Medina on the opening day roster.

As seen in the video above, Medina has a lightning fastball that he can ramp up to 100 mph. The pitch has good life and he can definitely get whiffs with the pitch. Outside of that however, Medina has struggled to throw strikes.

Despite running above average strikeout rates throughout the minors, Medina has posted double-digit walk rates at every stop along the way. In his 109.2 innings in Oakland last year, he walked 11.5% of batters, which is unsustainable for a starter.

His lack of control led to a 5.42 ERA with the A's in 2023, albeit with a more encouraging 4.76 FIP. As mentioned, he's going to be in Oakland to start the year, barring injury. It's possible that the A's move him to a bullpen role to try to get the most out of him. He did make six relief appearances in 2023, though he would be much more valuable as a starter if he can get things a little more dialed in.

Ultimately, Medina probably ends up in the opening day rotation. He's too talented for the A's to walk away from him and based on his performance last year is likely one of the guys most deserving of a spot. Medina could be a monster if everything goes right, so here's hoping 2024 is his year.

In what could end up being an excellent move for David Forst, the Athletics acquired Joe Boyle from the Reds in July of last year. He made three starts at Double-A, posting a 2.08 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 17.1 innings.

Boyle was then promoted to Triple-A, where he again made three starts, this time with a 2.25 ERA and 18 strikeouts in 16 innings. He got called up to Oakland and made three final starts in September, posting a 1.69 ERA, this time with 15 strikeouts in 16 innings.

Boyle stands an intimidating 6'7" and has a fastball that averages nearly 98 mph. He adds in a nasty slider that generates a ton of whiffs, and he has a show-me curve to round out the arsenal. The fastball isn't an elite strikeout pitch but with his size and deception, it plays up.

His biggest issue has been the walks. While he walked 8.3% of batters during his stint in Oakland, Boyle has posted double-digit walk rates in nearly all of his minor league stops. It'll be the biggest thing holding him back but if he can learn to control his pitches, he can be a dominant starter in the majors.

Depending on his performance in spring training, Boyle should be the 5th man in the A's rotation on opening day. He has as much upside as anyone else on the pitching staff, including Mason Miller, and his performance in 2023 absolutely warrants his inclusion in the rotation.