5 keys to a successful offseason for the Athletics
We're a week into the MLB offseason, and free agency is just starting to get underway. Here's what the Athletics need to do in order call this offseason a success.
The Oakland A’s 2023 season was one of the worst in franchise history. Finishing 50-112 with the worst offense in baseball and poor pitching to match leaves much to be desired. However, that doesn’t mean this team can’t take steps forward during the offseason. There are a number of areas the A’s front office must target for upgrades, both on the field and off.
Rule 5 Draft
The A’s took advantage of last year’s Rule 5 draft, selecting Ryan Noda with the second overall pick. Noda had a strong year for the A’s, slashing .229/.364/.406 with 16 homers and good plate discipline. While the strikeout rate is a bit high, the 15% walk rate will play, as will an on-base percentage over .350.
Despite Noda’s success, players taken in the Rule 5 draft don’t always have great outcomes. There’s a reason their former clubs chose not to add them to the 40-man roster. However, it can be a means to find talent the club otherwise wouldn’t have access to. Successful recent Rule 5 picks include Garrett Whitlock, Akil Baddoo, Jordan Romano, and Nestor Cortes Jr, to name a few.
The A’s have several needs, including the left side of the infield, the rotation, and the bullpen. If the right player is available, the A’s would be wise to take a shot on a pitcher who has a chance to stick on the roster moving forward.
Free Agent Additions
The A’s need to add both offense and pitching. Specifically, the left side of the infield, corner outfield, and the entire pitching staff need improvements. Estuary Ruiz, JJ Bleday, and Lawrence Butler offer a glimpse into the future, but the A’s could do better than relying on those guys for everyday production. And while Nick Allen can hold his own at the six from a defensive perspective, he struggled at the plate in 2023.
The bad news is that unless John Fisher wants to pony up, the options for SS/3B in free agency this year are slim. Charlie Culberson and Brian Anderson aren’t exciting players but they might be roster fits. A versatile outfielder with a capable bat isn’t easy to find, but someone like Travis Jankowski or Michael A Taylor would make sense, and potentially be in the right price range.
Assuming the club were to pick up a reliever in the Rule 5 draft, a capable starting pitcher would be a big get. Dreams of adding Aaron Nola or Yoshinobu Yamamoto are fleeting, but this class of free agent starting pitchers is deep.
A stopgap type pitcher or two like Wade Miley or Tyler Mahle could come in and provide valuable innings at a limited cost. It would allow the young guys like Ken Waldichuk, Mason Miller, and Kyle Muller to ease into their places in the rotation rather than being vital to the team’s success in 2024.
Find a Home For Tyler Soderstrom
As one of the top prospects in the organization, expectations for Tyler Soderstrom are high. The 2020 first round draft pick breezed through the A’s minor league system, posting a .957 OPS in Single-A Stockton in 2021, followed by an .825 mark between High-A Lansing and Double-A Midland in 2022. After spending the first half of this year at Triple-A Las Vegas, Soderstrom struggled to a .160/.232/.240 line in 45 games in Oakland. A 31% strikeout rate coupled with an extremely low .213 BABIP led to a disappointing first trip to the big leagues.
Soderstrom hit well enough in the minors that some positive regression is expected. He should be a bit better, and a bit luckier, in 2024. However, despite getting the bulk of his playing time in the minors behind the plate, Soderstrom might not be a viable major league catcher. His blocking and receiving skills are not well regarded and with Shea Langeliers as the primary backstop, Soderstrom might need to find a new home.
The primary issue is that Ryan Noda seems to have the first base job in hand, and while you want Brent Rooker’s bat in the lineup, he isn’t a defensive wizard in the outfield. Getting Soderstrom reps at first base and using the trio in a revolving door platoon seems the most likely outcome, but it would be nice to have some additional clarity on what Soderstrom’s role is going to be heading into 2024.
Add Talent Via Trades
David Forst has exhausted most of the A’s trade chips over the past few years, and there isn’t much left to be dealt. It’s unlikely that the team would be able to move Aledmys Diaz’s contract, and there aren’t any late-arbitration type players that need to move. However, if the club can get something for Paul Blackburn, they should do so.
Blackburn had a steady year, posting a 3.96 FIP despite a 4.43 ERA in 103.2 innings. However, the walk rate spiked a full three percentage points. Meanwhile, he allowed the second highest rate of fly balls in his career, coupled with his lowest HR/FB rate. He very well could be in line for some negative regression.
Blackburn will be in his age-30 season next year, along with it being his first arbitration year. Cot’s Contracts projects him at $2.9m in 2024, which is more than affordable. He would fit nicely in the back end of a competitive team’s rotation, and while he won’t bring back a major prospect, he could bring a viable player or two back to Oakland.
Bring Back the Analytics Staff
As reported by John Shea of the SF Chronicle, the A’s ranked last in the league with just 8 full-time staffers in the analytics department in 2023. The A’s used to be on the forefront of the analytics revolution, but times have changed. John Fisher has decided he doesn’t want to support that part of the organization, but it’s critical that mindset changes in order for the A’s to be successful.
According to the report, the Rays ranked first with 44 full time analytics staffers. As a self-proclaimed small market team, you’d expect Fisher to try to find hidden advantages where payroll dollars don’t seem to be a fix. If the A’s want to remain relevant, the level of investment needs to increase dramatically. It’s a dog eat dog industry, and falling behind can leave you out for an extended period of time.
The A’s need to act in this area, maybe more than anything else listed in this column. They need more bodies, they need better technology, and they need more financial investment from Fisher. There’s no way around it. If you’re not going to outspend the competition, you have to be better on the margins, and the A’s are quickly falling behind.
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