Five breakout candidates for the 2015 Oakland Athletics
A couple weeks ago, I wrote about five players who I thought would disappoint Athletics fans this season. But the good news is, I don’t think this year is doomed! In fact, I’d happily bet the over on their win total this year (Vegas has them at 81.5).
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Why? Well in addition to getting solid production from players they are expecting it from (like Billy Butler, Brett Lawrie, Marcus Semien, etc.) there will also be some surprises that contribute more than expected. There always are! The fun part is trying to figure out who they’ll be before everybody knows who they are.
Here are five players who I think will exceed expectations and have breakout seasons in 2015. Share yours with me in the comment section below or on twitter @mattmcsports27.
Next: Jesse Hahn
Jul 25, 2014; Atlanta, GA, USA; San Diego Padres starting pitcher Jesse Hahn (45) pitches against the Atlanta Braves during the first inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Jesse Hahn
Right now, it seems like Hahn is a probable candidate for one of the openings at the back end of the rotation. By the end of the year, I predict we’ll be talking about the powerful Sonny Gray/Jesse Hahn 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation.
Hahn pitched well in 14 games with the Padres last season, and was even better in the minors. His 3.40 FIP and 8.6 K/9 are signs that his strong rookie year was not a fluke. His career minor league K/9 is 8.8, so that’s just more evidence that his performance last year is sustainable.
Hahn’s most effective pitch is his Barry Zito-like massive curveball. When a starting pitcher has a huge strikeout weapon like that, it’s fair to expect great things. My prediction is that he finishes the year with an ERA around 3.00 and finishes among the top 25 pitchers in the league in WAR.
Next: Kendall Graveman
Sep 25, 2014; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Kendall Graveman (31) delivers a pitch during the Jays 7-5 loss to Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
Kendall Graveman
Graveman, picked up in the Josh Donaldson trade, has limited experience in the big leagues, but the 24-year-old’s potential is definitely noteworthy. He shot through the Blue Jays minor league system last year, starting the year in A ball and finishing in the big leagues. He was a starter in the minors and a reliever in the majors, and his role the A’s is not yet finalized. He could be a long reliever or maybe the fifth starter.
Regardless, his talent is truly remarkable. In 27 minor league starts, he had a 1.83 ERA and 3.71 K/BB ratio. While he’s not a big strikeout guy like Hahn, he has consistently kept the walks down, which is usually something that translates well from the minors to the big leagues.
My prediction for him is that he makes the team as a reliever, pitches well, and eventually moves into the back end of the rotation and thrives. By the end of the year, it’s reasonable to expect an ERA around 3.50 and a WHIP around 1.15.
Next: R.J. Alvarez
Feb 25, 2015; Mesa, AZ, USA; Oakland Athletics relief pitcher R.J. Alvarez (37) throws during a workout at Fitch Park. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
R.J. Alvarez
Alvarez was acquired with Hahn from the Padres, which is why I think the Derek Norris trade was ridiculously lopsided. Alvarez was the Padres reward for Huston Street in their trade deadline deal with the Angels, and he had great success in both systems. He eventually made it to the big leagues in San Diego where he had a 1.13 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
In 38 games in the minors last year he had a 1.25 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and a ridiculous 12.7 K/9 rate. While those numbers probably aren’t sustainable at the big league level, even if his ERA triples he would still be a productive reliever. Strikeout rates like that project future closer-level material, and he could very well contribute that level of production as soon as this year.
While I’m not sure if he’ll make the opening day roster, I think he’ll thrive in AAA and get called up in May or June. He’ll be a solid right-handed reliever for the rest of the year, with a WHIP around 1.10 and a K/9 over 9.0.
Next: Craig Gentry
September 3, 2014; Oakland, CA, USA; Oakland Athletics center fielder Craig Gentry (3) bats during the seventh inning against the Seattle Mariners at O.co Coliseum. The Mariners defeated the Athletics 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Craig Gentry
I mentioned Gentry’s name in my last piece where I expressed my concerns about Coco Crisp’s future. That was before the announcement that Crisp would be moving to left field, which I think benefits everyone involved.
Gentry will probably start the year off in a platoon with Sam Fuld in center field. Maybe, if Josh Reddick’s still out, they’ll both get everyday playing time, but Reddick’s status is still uncertain. Regardless, by the end of the year, I believe that Gentry will have cemented himself as a solid everyday centerfielder.
His well-above average defense and baserunning that he displayed last year should be back in full force, and I’d expect him to improve his production at the plate as well. His BABIP was 19 points lower than his career average, so it’s reasonable for him to raise his average back to the .270-.280 range. Also, he was dealing with various freak injuries (like concussions caused by collisions at first base) so playing fully healthy should benefit him as well.
My prediction for him is an average around .280 with 30 steals, great defense, and more WAR than any other A’s outfielder (he had 2.0 WAR in 94 games last year, 3.3 WAR in 106 games the year before).
Next: Tyler Ladendorf
Mar 4, 2015; Scottsdale, AZ, USA; Oakland Athletics second baseman Tyler Ladendorf (25) flies out during the first inning against the San Francisco Giants during a spring training baseball game at Scottsdale Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Tyler Ladendorf
Ladendorf is the only player on this list who has yet to make it to the big leagues, but I think this will be his big year. The 26-year-old utility player had a .376 OBP in AAA last year before being suspended for recreational drugs. Now that he’s past his suspension, he is a long-shot to make the opening day roster, and is probably destined for AAA to start the year.
However, with the A’s question marks in the outfield due to Reddick’s injury, I’d like to see Ladendorf make the opening day roster if Reddick isn’t ready. Ladendorf can play all over the field, and he can demolish left-handed pitching (.395 batting average against lefties last year).
Ideally he can be used in a platoon situation, possibly with Eric Sogard at second base, and Ben Zobrist could shift to right field, at least temporarily. And when Coco gets hurt (sorry, but everyone knows it will happen) Zobrist can play left, Reddick can play right, and Sogard/Ladendorf could be a solid second base platoon.
My prediction for him is that he starts the year in AAA, plays well and gets called up when Coco or someone else gets hurt. Once he makes it to the big leagues, he continues playing well and sticks around in a platoon/utility role. He’ll hit around .270 (in the .320s against lefties) and play solid defense all around the field. Even though he doesn’t have much power, his value as a utility player will make a significant impact on the team.